Time For Major (but minor) Change
As the Oilers drop their third loss this season in short order at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks, they find themselves in a pickle a little too early for their liking.
So…
I started writing this article last Friday night prior to their loss to the Predators, published it and Substack’s platform had some tech errors, had to take it down, and have been editing it ever since to be contemporary.
In four days since then on this Tuesday morning, a lot has happened needless to say. Elliot Friedman has reported today the Oilers have waived G Jack Campbell and the assumption according to sources is they will be recalling Cal Pickard. Let’s dig into it..
So the practical part first. The cap savings that the Oilers will have at their disposal once he clears will be minimal, but it seems like this is more of a message sending move to the team that their current play is unacceptable and Pickard, who is 31 years old like Campbell and not waivers exempt, is posting a .939 sv% for the Condors so far this season. He also has 113 NHL games played so they won’t be throwing a young man in Rodrigue to the wolves behind a poor defending team. According to PuckPedia, “if replaced by Pickard tomorrow, it increases #LetsGoOilers Projected Cap Space by $318k to $696k total. That total can fit $820k additional annual cap hit tmrw, or if saved/accrued with no other moves, it can fit $3.18m annual cap hit at trade deadline.”
After their game last night to Vancouver where they couldn’t buy a save in a disheartening loss, they had to do something and in my humble opinion this is a good move. It does provide some relief in terms of cap savings, it gives Campbell the chance to attempt to find his game and confidence, and most importantly it’s a jolt to the ageing core and locker room that tells them their on ice product is listless and needs to be improved.
Thus far, my preseason predictions from back in September are coming true except it’s far worse than I thought. Sitting only ahead of the San Jose Sharks in the entire league, the Oilers are finding themselves in a serious hole that is getting deeper in a hurry. The LA Kings (7-2-2) who were one of my outside obstacles obstructing them have yet to lose a game on the road, the Knights (11-1-1) have just one loss in regulation, and the surprise Canucks (9-2-1) are the highest scoring team in the NHL. Hell even the upstart Ducks have 7 wins for 14 points.
So what’s going on in Edmonton? There’s a litany of issues this team is plagued with currently. Some seem daunting, some seem temporary, but some are longstanding that are nothing new which I’ll focus on.
This article comes off the heels of a few losses, but two in particular last Thursday to the Dallas Stars and and last night against Vancouver where we saw a few things of note that are in need of unpacking despite the fact they have been already a plenty. The Oilers did not get a save on a shot by Duchene that should have been stopped, their depth scoring was unable to bury on their opportunities, and a pair of defensive gaffes ended up being the difference in that game, one pathetic effort from Bouchard in particular.
To be fair, all three goals came at even strength and they were tallied by Evander Kane who has recently got his game going at the level he’s known for, and Sam Gagner, the Oilers newest edition who was playing in his first game on this his third tour of duty in Edmonton. With that said however, we’ll start with the depth scoring that is non-existent so far this season.
In another “to be fair” caveat, the forward group has actually been driving play quite well this year for the most part, and despite the bagels inhabiting Connor Browns stat line he has been all over the net in dangerous areas and getting chances he just hasn’t been able to convert them yet. The Holloway and McLeod duo have also impressed the analytics community with their impressive high danger numbers and pace of play. This is however where the rubber meets the road between the fancy stats people and the eye test people. Those numbers while useful and might perhaps indicate a breakthrough is on the horizon, aren’t entirely applicable when it comes to the lineup card of a team who’s a supposed contender with a meager 5 points on the season. Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Mattias Janmark (injured), Connor Brown, and Adam Erne who has just cleared waivers and been replaced by the aforementioned Sam Gagner, have 0 points between them. And Derek Ryan who rounds out their bottom six, has 1 assist. I defended this group last year as a whole and thought they got an unfair amount of criticism, but this is a nightmarish start and they simply have got to be better, particularly Ryan McLeod. He has elite speed and he uses it to gain the zone multiple times a game, but often will circle the net or delay and look for a perfect pass allowing the opponent to get setup in position. This player has got to start taking the puck to the paint and have a shoot first mentality. It’s a cliche I know, but simplifying his game would greatly benefit him. Make goalies make saves and look for rebounds and the goals will come while his wingers will also be benefactors of a more simpler game but it starts with him.
It’s also time to split up 29 and 97. They aren’t clicking at all and were two of the Oilers least effective forwards against the Stars. Constantly throwing them out there makes their line and the ones coming over the boards behind them predictable which is indicative of coaching error and we’ll get to that a little later (it’s been head scratching). But the fact remains that the team forward depth could be improved upon without a trade by just simply breaking these two up and allowing at least one of them to get out there against a better pairing matchup. Trying McDavid on the wing (which he has played before with Draisaitl at center before you jump down my throat - in fact they started the game against Dallas t in that formation) would lead to some breakaway opportunities that could both tack an extra goal or two on the board but also change how opposing teams would have to defend them getting them out of their structure. Right now the Oilers aren’t making their opponents uncomfortable or dictating the terms on the sheet which is what they do best when they’re piling up wins.
Regardless of what the solution is and I don’t claim to have them all, there is little doubt that Woodcroft’s deployment with the lineup card is not working. Making them such a top heavy team insures that you need 29 and 97 providing the bulk of the offence while those beneath them struggle and it’s not a winning method. Elevate Holloway and Lavoie to play with Draisaitl and McDavid for a 5 game stretch and see what they can do. A lineup that looked like say..
LW - C - RW
McDavid/McLeod - McDavid/McLeod - Holloway
Kane - Draisaitl/Lavoie - Draisaitl/Lavoie
Hyman - Nugent-Hopkins - Gagner
Foegle - Ryan - Brown (injury pending)
… would give the Oilers a ton more depth and these are all in house options albeit one from the Condors (who is now up with the club since writing this). Some will argue that the Nuge/Gagner/Kane line against Dallas looked great and should probably stay together which is fair, Kane and Hyman are very interchangeable, but this experiment is to create 4 lines with duos together who have history/chemistry and provide 4 different looks to opposing defensive units. Moreover, ten of these forwards can comfortably play both wing and center which is a club not many teams have in their bag. It’s also important to note that in a true four line structure like this, there is no numerical hierarchy. Being on the 4th line doesn’t mean you’re in the dog house. The idea is to have 4 lines each a with unique skillset and complexion that you can comfortably roll against whoever your opponent decides to throw out there.
McLeod and Holloway both need a boost, they’ve been playing well together despite the scoring drought and have had a plethora of wingers on their line to date, so why not McDavid?
If you were to go with an option such as this as the head coach, it only makes sense to leave them together for a 5 game stretch and actually roll four lines as teams like Dallas and Vegas do. Woodcroft in my opinion is far too quick to throw the lines in the blender which hinders each line’s ability to create chemistry. You can’t just try players like McLeod and Holloway together and break them up instantly in a short time frame because you expect McDavid and Draisaitl numbers. His decisions at the moment make it seem like he’s scrambling for answers.
Let. Them. Cook.
In the game last night against the Canucks to Woodcroft’s credit, he put a line combo together that resembled this example and it was a good look. They came out humming and the shots were there, the pressure was there. Demko kept the Canucks in it long enough for them to get back and take control of the game which is happening a lot to Edmonton.
Secondly, the defensive gaffes are again what costs them often in these losses. Once again to be fair, Nurse and Ceci have actually looked quite good together especially in the Heritage Classic. They have solid underlying numbers that suggest they’re going to find the level they were at against the Flames in the playoffs two seasons ago. However, it’s the “big mistakes” that seldom happen but when they do happen are very costly. The defensive awareness has got to be better and Nurse still displays these bad habits, but the biggest culprit of this phenomenon currently is without question Evan Bouchard. His effort against Dallas on Roope Hintz’s second goal was atrocious, pathetic, non-existent, pick your negative descriptor. Whatever it is, probably doesn’t adequately describe his execution on that goal against. Last night against Vancouver, he had an even worse example of this when he mailed it in on a bad pinch and back check on Hoglander’s goal that made it 4-2.
Nurse had a gaffe of his own on the penalty kill in the game against Dallas when he tried to clear a net front puck, Pavelski got a slice of it and it went directly to Hintz who tapped it in. At least some effort was there in contrast to the Bouchard mistake(s) but nonetheless, still has to be a better effort and this leads me back to what I said in the pre-season preview and have for many seasons during the McDavid era.
There HAS to be an upgrade on the back end, this is not a product of just an early season slump that can get turned around. This is systemic and repetitive. The Ekholm addition while great was not enough to propel this unit into championship caliber.
While short term, I think the scoring slump of the depth forwards needs to be addressed the quickest it is also the easiest. Mid to long term meaning before or at the deadline and beyond, if this team wants to win this year and next while they have 29 under contract there has got to be an acquisition made to give Woodcroft another option on the blueline. I like Broberg a lot but they’ve made it clear he’s not the upgrade they’re looking for and his confidence is shot as a result. So what’s the answer? Because the 6 they’re about to roll with (as of writing this Broberg has been sent down to Bakersfield) are simply not good enough despite the good things they show. While in division trades are very unlikely, I do wonder if the price was right they could call the Flames about Hanifin or Zadorov because things are about to get ugly in Cow Town and some of these guys should become available who could be serviceable in Edmonton’s lineup. Zadorov is interesting because he’s a UFA this off-season, can play the right side and makes 1.25 million less than Hanifin. Nick Desimone is a more realistic option who has at this point been a journeyman, but he had an incredibly solid year last year in the American League with the Wranglers and carries a league minimum cap hit.
A trade right now is unlikely, it’s not how the league works. Some hot starts will cool off and vice versa, teams will elect to look within for answers and teams like for example Vancouver aren’t going to screw with a good thing and on the other end of the spectrum teams like Carolina aren’t going to throw in the towel despite some early season slumps. But if Ken Holland does not address this in a meaningful way, this team will not come out of the west in the playoffs, full stop. I am sick of saying it and you’re sick of hearing it.
Third and final in terms of the on ice product, the goaltending is also just not good enough. It’s the least of their concerns that exist and I have defended them a ton this past year and a half since they signed Jack Campbell, but there’s no question that both him and Skinner (who has played great at times this season) just simply have to make a big, timely save when they’re not expected too as winning goalies usually do. These two are never going to be elite tier goalies, but sometimes even guys in their tier need to save a game, steal a game, or at the very least keep their team in it and give them a chance when they’re bleeding. The Oilers aren’t getting that right now and the goal by Matt Duchene last Thursday was a prime example. It was a relatively weak shot right in Skinner’s wheelhouse and he just didn’t get enough of his pad on it. Need to have those, a lot more. Same thing last night on the Suter goal, the rush defending was not good to be sure, but that was not a particularly good shot in his wheelhouse again and you just have to come up with it. Is Pickard or Rodriue the answer right now? Not very likely but they had to do something to stop the bleeding in the crease.
Ken Holland is once again trying to clean up a mess he himself has made and everyone is tired of watching the coaches and players have to deal with it. He rarely speaks to the media and hangs Woodcroft out to dry while he faces the media multiple times daily and has to answer for the internal structure blunders. Jay Woodcroft is most likely to pay the price in this situation but it’s not in his power to upgrade the roster and it needs upgrading. The idea that Connor Brown was the answer to this teams woes just never made sense and this is not to dog on the player, they should hold on to him and show some good faith. But the fact remains that the same issues that have lingered during Hollands entire 4 year tenure are still here 11 games into this his 5th season that is close to being pissed away before it’s really even started. That is unacceptable this year with the core they have. Since entering the league the core of Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have played under four different coaches, and in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins case he’s played under two more being the longest tenured Oiler. The thought that a new coach is going to magically extract more production out of this flawed roster is fallacious thinking in my view and Woodcroft has shown in his two years that he can get out of these kinds of jams.
I will be honest and say that I am of the mind that Holland should be the first to go so perhaps I am bias or with blind spots or both, but the reality of the situation is that he’s not going to get fired. It’s highly unlikely anyway and while I do understand why the conventional methods aren’t working for this team. Some out of the box and bold thinking is what’s needed.
So what are their options now in the wake of the Campbell transaction?
Ryan Rishaug of TSN posted on X that it was his “sense is there isn’t a trade imminent on the goaltending front” and further indicated the aforementioned recall from the Condors. Generally he’s the reporter I look too who covers the Oilers because he seems to have his finger on the pulse. I do however find it hard to believe that Ken and company aren’t at the very least on the phone exploring what’s out there on multiple fronts. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t be doing their jobs but they will be sledding uphill. No GM is going to throw them a life raft in this position they find themselves in. A trade right now isn’t impossible but it’s pretty darn close to it considering the circumstances. And this is yet again where I criticize Ken Holland most for where this Oiler team sits because long ago fans and pundits alike saw this coming. Steve Yzerman wasted no time in getting Husso on a deal that the Oilers could’ve have afforded and he used a pick Edmonton also had to acquire his negotiating rights from St. Louis. A season later we saw the Avalanche go out and get Georgiev for a similar cost and that’s immediately paid dividends for them. It’s on him that this roster isn’t up to snuff and he should not be permitted to make another coaching decision in Edmonton.
If the Oilers lose to the San Jose Sharks on Thursday which is very possible however, he will likely be permitted to and do exactly that.