On To Round 2
The Oilers will take on their Pacific Division rivals the Vancouver Canucks for the first time since 1992
My reluctance to crown the Oilers winners of their first round matchup the way most were turned out to be a little too cautious. They completed the gentlemen’s sweep of the Kings rather handedly, and while the goal differential was not very lopsided particularly at 5on5, the Kings scored four very fluky goals that inflated the stat.
The truth is the Oilers did not have much trouble penetrating their 1-3-1 structure which lead to a mass questioning by reporters in the Kings exit interview media availability about whether or not they should abandon it. Kevin Fiala had this to say about it.
Vancouver is a much different stylistic opponent. They are far more similar to the way that Edmonton plays in the sense that they want to hang on to the puck rather than create off of turnovers. They play with pace and puck handling as the cornerstones of their attack. With that said, in game six of their series against Nashville which they did ultimately win, that attack did not come so easily to them.
A weakness the Canucks displayed in their previous series to the eye was that they could not handle the physical nature of the game state. Garland, Pettersson, Hughes and others consistently lost control of the puck or failed to gain it due to being out muscled by Predators defenders. The Oilers need to game plan for being the more physical team because while yes the Predators ultimately lost, this tactic significantly limited the ability of some of their top weapons to generate any offence or sustained pressure.
Quinn Hughes, the likely Norris trophy winner is going to give the Oilers fits and here’s why.
This is a lengthy video detailing what makes this man so dangerous. He uses his speed, vision and puck handling ability to create something from nothing almost every time he’s on the ice. Old school hockey players and pundits sometimes criticize the play of Hughes and others like him for taking unnecessary risks below the hashmarks in the offensive zone. The flaw in this thinking is twofold.
One, by using the standard or safe approach of curling and skating backwards once your opponents are beginning their breakout, you are almost always conceding a third of the rink (the neutral zone) to the puck carrier and reinforcements while backing up into your goalie. Try to apply this to football terms. Imagine allowing the running back to gain 75 yards so you could try to stop him in the red zone. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Two, is that by Hughes and players like him (Makar, Hutson, Josi,) who like to come down off the blue line into the corners with the puck on their stick are creating a huge headache for the opponents defensive structure to diagnose. And even if they do indeed diagnose the threat and prevent a turnover, Hughes is now in prime placement to get it back an entire ice sheet away from his own net. In other words, the condition of the puck is far improved. Hughes often will retrieve such pucks and his line mates can then continue their offensive zone possession rather than curling to begin the back check. In some ways you can think of it as a mini man-advantage.
What Edmonton frequently gets itself into trouble with is their defensive zone structure and awareness. For all of its improvements, bad pinches caused chances and goals last series as well as puck watching. For whatever reason these habits still creep into their game and Hughes can and will exploit both but particularly puck watching in your defensive zone. He can draw attention to himself while others get open which will almost always end in peeling a puck out of your own net.
What the Predators did to neutralize Hughes was simple, they played the body on him as much as humanly possible especially when he was retrieving pucks in his own end. He did get five assists but was -1 on the series and the physical toll visibly affected him. Without crossing the line, players like Evander Kane, Warren Foegle, Zach Hyman and other F1’s need to play him hard on the forecheck to wear him down. Cross the line however and he’ll make you pay on the ensuing powerplay.
This has become a common talking point the last 24 hours which I try to avoid, but I would be remiss not to identify that the Canucks are really going to need their top 6 forwards to drastically elevate their game. The Oilers have considerably more firepower than both themselves and their previous opponent and are going to give them all they can handle.
The Oilers staff have some concerns of their own as well, primarily the minutes of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci. While they draw a lot of undeserved criticism some of the concern is absolutely valid. Against LA they were outscored 4-2 at even strength when on the ice together. One of which was a very fluky PL Dubois goal that caromed off of Nurses foot and in. But the other gaffe was more of a mistake in my opinion rather than an accident. Cody Ceci cannot do anything about his stick failing, that’s an accident. Throwing the puck into the middle of the ice with your hand after the fact is a decision and this is consistently what this pairing can struggle with. When they are tasked with making a quick decision in their own zone they are regularly exposed which will feed into the Canucks skilled groups habits particularly speedy wingers like Hoglander and Garland.
With that said, a lot of the Nurse and Ceci flack is unwarranted and inflated by the mistakes that while look terrible on tape do not illustrate the entire picture of their game. They are both big and mobile men who shine at breaking up cycles when playing physical which should be emphasized by Paul Coffey.
Top 5 Scorers of the Series
Connor McDavid 12 pts
Leon Draisaitl 10 pts
Evan Bouchard 9 pts
Zach Hyman 8 pts
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins & Brock Boeser 6 pts
This list is both simplistic and very illuminating. Many Oilers detractors will point to the fact that these five players are all on the top powerplay unit which seemingly points to the lack of understanding of why the Oilers top powerplay unit is so darn good. It exposes a fallacious way of thinking that the only reason why they have such high point totals because they are on the powerplay. The LA Kings had the second best penalty kill in the NHL this season and the Oilers dismantled it with a 45% clip. This unit is that good because of these players, not the other way around.
Furthermore, Elias Pettersson has just 1 goal in his last 19 games who also plays on the top powerplay unit. If the Canucks are going to chart themselves a path towards winning this series, Pettersson has to be a big part of forging it and thus far his play has been uninspiring.
The bottom line is this series should be competitive if the Canucks can replicate some of that structure from their first round series against Nashville, and, if they can capitalize on the Oilers penchant to shoot themselves in the foot but ultimately I think the Oilers will be victorious.
Pick: Oilers in 6