Oilers vs. Kings Round 3
A preview of the third consecutive installment of this matchup, a series that should be closer than many seem to think.
After an eventful Thursday evening that saw the Golden Knights lose to the Ducks, and the Kings although getting a third period scare from the Blackhawks ultimately secured the point needed to finish third in the Pacific, the outlook in the Western Conference finally shook itself out. Which by the way is a major win for the NHL as a whole, seeing as how the regular season quite literally came down to the wire.
As a result, we see the Kings draw the Oilers yet again in what most analysts, pundits, the public and gambling markets are saying will be a layup for the Oilers. Personally, I am not so sure about that. While I do think Edmonton will win this series, there are some serious hurdles they will need to clear in order to do so some of which can lead you to the conclusion there is a path for LA to win this series and finally get over that hump.
The LA Kings biggest strength (at times) is their deployment of the neutral zone trap, or 1-3-1, sometimes called the parachute in slang terms as it’s designed to limit speed through the neutral zone which one could speculate is designed specifically to beat a team like the Oilers who as you all know feast on their ability to transport the puck quickly. Connor Brown in recent weeks is one example of a depth player in this lineup who has shown he likes to carry the puck into the zone rather than chase it which is both habitual for him as an individual and systemic for Edmonton as an organization. The Oilers coaching staff and management have acquired players who prefer to possess the puck as that is the system they believe is the most successful. This is a run and gun offence with speed and strong puck handling ability. The 1-3-1 is meant to neutralize this and when the Kings are committed to the formation there is no better team in the NHL at executing it. They resemble the 2019-20 New York Islanders who before the Kings were the best at this system and they executed it perfectly in their back to back runs to the Eastern Conference Finals and surprised a lot of people by beating teams much better than them on paper along the way.
The LA Kings are a more talented team than those Islanders rosters albeit with inferior goaltending. And in the last half of the season this system they’ve chosen has shown cracks in the armor. Having said that, Kopitar and Danault are two of the most elite defensive centers in the game today who are no slouches on the other side of the puck either and if they can limit the Oilers attack, force turnovers (which Edmonton is notorious for) and be opportunistic with their chances, it is certainly possible that the Kings can advance this round.
On the other hand, there are ways to penetrate this formation as well, and the tried and tested methods are ones that Edmonton should be able to implement without much issue. They have two years in a row after all, but I also feel that the Kings downgraded their lineup back in the off-season when they lost key contributors to their philosophy in order to acquire PL Dubois.
Stretch Passes
When Jaques Lemaire made this system famous in the 90’s during his tenure with the Devils, the two line offside pass was still in effect making this trap incredibly hard to defeat. Post lockout in 2005 the NHL put that rule to bed for good which allowed teams to expose this formation and if done properly it creates odd man rushes and forces your opponent to defend on the backcheck putting them at a significant disadvantage. The risk however is that these passes are high turnover worthy plays which feeds into their hand and the Oilers have shown quite a bit that they can be careless with the puck, particularly Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl. That isn’t necessarily a knock on either player, they like to take risks to generate offence and creativity which often times results in both high danger, optimal opportunities and ultimately goals. It is a calculated risk however and it can just as likely lead to peeling a puck out of your own net.
Dump and Chase
This method is counter intuitive to the way Edmonton wants to play as we covered earlier. This entire lineup wants to have the puck on their stick and you can see it in their body language when carrying the puck in the neutral zone. Every player looks up to see if they have room to skate prior to getting it deep. It really is a last resort option which again is just a part of their system. In todays game it’s obvious that this method as a full-60 philosophy is outdated due to how good defencemen are now at puck retrievals. Typically, if you do this you are essentially just conceding possession and that’s a good recipe for losing.
With that said, Los Angeles while make no mistake are very good on the blueline, don’t necessarily have any elite skaters or puck retrieval experts. And if Edmonton can use their speed to collect soft dumps outside of the goalkeeper restricted area to establish possession, they can then use their high end forechecking and cycling ability to wear the Kings down and expose what is a rather poor goaltending situation. F1 types in this situation are; Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Ryan McLeod, Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark and Dylan Holloway. All of these men are either great to elite skaters with excellent motors that run hot. Ryan McLeod could add more physicality to his game but nevertheless, he has the footspeed and finesse to retain possession once he gets his nose over the puck.
Of these two options they favor and we will see more often is likely the former just considering the tendencies of each player, but the Kings may force these Oilers’ hands if they start to stifle their strengths off the rush. Which leads me to something the Oilers desperately need to practice this round, patience.
We are all familiar with Draisaitl’s infamous body language moments and when he throws what some members of the media call a “hissy fit” on the bench or what have you. Personally, I would be worried if this kind of stuff wasn’t happening on a professional sports teams bench but I digress. The fact is however is that the Oilers do tend to get frustrated when things aren’t clicking offensively and it’s plain as day to the naked eye. This is an experienced group who have gone through some significant growing pains and losses I am quite confident this is something they’re addressing behind closed doors. But come puck drop on Monday evening it will be so important to actually put it into practice and remain calm. The LA Kings will absolutely make life difficult for them, and as opposed to trying to do to much like the aforementioned stretch passes or, overpassing in the offensive zone, forcing it through lanes that are closed in order to find the perfect play is a trap they cannot fall into. A tidy, business like approach is what they’ll need and I think we’re going to see a much more professional and mature Oilers edition.
A key point of contention in the online discussion regarding the Oilers is what the lines should be game #1, and whether or not Dylan Holloway has earned a spot within it. I think it would be a huge mistake to have this young man sitting in the stands on Monday night. Since his recall he has consistently outplayed many of the forwards both in front of and behind him on the depth chart. In his last five games he has 2 goals and 2 assists, 12 shots on goal and -1. The argument against him is that he lacks polish, makes misreads at times and lacks experience. This assessment is valid, and yet still not good enough to keep him out of the lineup. The positive traits this guy brings far outweigh the negatives, most importantly pace. When he is out of the lineup, whoever replaces him is significantly slower. He plays an up tempo brand of hockey, he has tremendous puck handling ability and he’s also a force physically. He uses his size coupled with his speed to separate people from pucks. He’s also young, and eager to prove he belongs in the NHL because up to this point in his career he has bounced between the minors and majors. His presence is the exact shot in the arm this Oilers roster needs in my humble opinion. I really fail to recognize what Janmark brings that he doesn’t. From what I understand, and just judging by this staff’s previous decisions, my guess would be is that he doesn’t draw in for game #1 and that the lineup will look something like;
Kane - McDavid - Hyman
Nugent-Hopkins - Draisaitl - Foegle
Henrique - McLeod - Perry
Janmark - Carrick - Brown
(scratches: Holloway, Ryan, Gagner)
Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - Ceci*
Kulak - Desharnais
(scratches: Stetcher)
Skinner
* This leads me to my biggest concern for the Oilers this spring.
I do like the pickup of Troy Stetcher at the deadline and he’s looked good in his starts so far. I don’t think he sufficiently addresses what is a flaw in this lineup and has reared it’s head as of late after showing some promising play throughout the season.
Ceci is a fine player in a depth position and I’ve said ad nauseum that his play in his first year as an Oiler was stellar. I saw him play March 1st of this season in Seattle and he was the Oilers best player of the day. There are things to like about his game and when he’s on it he’s serviceable. The issue is that Knoblauch and Coffey are in a position where they have to use him as a workhorse against elites when his minutes should be minimized. Him and Nurse have looked out of step often this season and it’s resulted in them being split up. I do think for game #1 they will at least start the game together but I also predict it won’t stay that way. They have not been playing well together the last two weeks, frequent miscues and lapses in awareness lead to easy goals for opponents. At this stage Oilers fans have to brace for when this happens and not if. The solid play of Desharnais this year is a safety valve for Knoblauch, they should be able to comfortably up his minutes while taking some away from Ceci to minimize the risk of these mistakes costing them a series.
Ekholm is having a career season and the coaching staff is going to lean on him heavily. Not only does he provide them with the very best defensive minutes of anyone on the team, but he is also chipping in on offence at a career high rate. When he winds and fires he is a dangerous shooting threat teams need to respect.
Bottom Line
Under interim head coach Jim Hiller, went 21-12-1. A head scratching fall from grace after a massive hot streak to begin the year costed Todd McLellan his job. And while they have also struggled for certain stretches since, the record speaks for itself. Their defensive play never faltered, and their penalty kill is formidable which should slow down the Oilers attack.
The issues for the Kings is that the Oilers have an advantage every where else on the ice, including goaltending. Skinner is not perfect, he often plays too deep in his net and is prone to letting in a stinker here and there. But the fact is he’s proven to be a solid goaltender, his numbers are very good and he can be relied on to keep you in the game when he has too. The Kings do not have that luxury and it will require them to be absolutely perfect with their defensive structure.
One thing that was covered a great deal this season with Edmonton was their third period goal differential and how many comeback wins they had in the final frame. There are two ways to look at that for me. It’s mostly been described as a positive thing and it is in ways to be sure, but the flip side of the coin is that the Oilers were often down in games and the nature of playoff hockey makes it very difficult to claw back in games especially against a 1-3-1 structure. Their first periods will be crucial, and when they acquire a lead they need to give LA a test of their own medicine and play a system designed to protect the lead.
Happy playoffs everyone, let’s enjoy it!