New Assessment At the Midway Point
A day after the official announcement of Corey Perry being added to the roster, let's take a look at where the Oilers stand today since we last spoke.
It came to light Sunday that there was traction being gained between the Edmonton Oilers and Corey Perry’s camp that they were closing in on brokering a deal to bring in the veteran forward for the remainder of the season. David Pagnotta of the Fourth Period reported it first on X and then Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff and others piled onto the speculation afterwards. Yesterday Perry and GM Ken Holland addressed the media in a formal conference announcing that they had agreed to a one year deal worth $775,000 with performance bonuses. Two corresponding moves were made to make them cap compliant which were sending Phil Kemp back down to Bakersfield and putting Adam Erne on waivers which he subsequently cleared today.
This in my humble opinion is an excellent addition for the Oilers despite it going against what I said in my season preview and it still gives me pause which I will get too. But what Corey Perry brings to this lineup that Sam Gagner, Brent Sutter, Connor Brown etc. don’t bring is the intangible experience of having won a Stanley Cup and being in three other Finals. He is an agitator who can draw penalties and drag the game into the mud when needed, and before his contract termination, he was on a 50 point pace. He still has the ability to provide the Oilers with some solid offensive production.
I do think that Edmonton would still greatly benefit from youth and quickness, my opinion on that does not change and this move does not address it as Perry’s biggest weakness at his advanced age is footspeed. The Oilers winger tandems are rather slow after Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman. With that being said, the Oilers lack of offensive production on the right wing in the bottom nine is now addressed with a league minimum contract and without giving up assets. That is a win, there is no risk and Perry as aforementioned was playing well in Chicago this season prior to his incident.
While this is massive news and I will apply to it this analysis, I think it’s appropriate to use it as a prompt to assess where we’re at now that we’ve hit the midway point of this season.
The Oilers are currently owners of a historic 14 game win streak, the longest any Canadian NHL team has ever owned. An impressive feat all things considered.
Under new bench boss Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers are an unbelievable 24-6. A surge was always going to come even had they kept Woodcroft, but some major improvements have certainly come because of Knoblauch’s changes which we will highlight here.
Penalty Kill
Jay Woodcroft for all of his coaching prowess was never able to successfully iron out the kinks on this teams penalty kill which would often lead to losing the special teams battle despite having a historically good powerplay. He would also frequently employ McDavid and Draisaitl on even the top unit which was ill-advised then and looks even worse now.
Knoblauch has opted to go with a more traditional approach, using pairs of forwards who display strong defensive prowess and work ethic, and has changed the defensive zone structure to play a more aggressive and stretched out diamond to take away shooting and passing lanes. This has turned what was a huge weakness into a massive strength and it’s creating tangible results in the win column. As of tonight they’ve killed 35 of their last 36 penalties, an incredible turnaround.
2. Forward Depth
The first order of business for Kris was to split up Draisaitl and McDavid which made many Oilers fans, breathe a sigh of relief. The combinations of wingers on this roster is really less important than just keeping these two on separate lines, which Knoblauch clearly thought to himself because in his first night with the lineup card he did exactly that. The results have been undeniably positive. Throughout the course of this unprecedented run the forward depth has been much improved without any additions from outside sources. McLeod now has 9 goals, Foegle and Hyman are both having career seasons, Gagner is chipping in with clutch goals and is on pace for 20 while playing roughly eleven minutes a night.
Edmonton is finding themselves in a position where they are winning games when 29 and 97 aren’t on the scoresheet which was seldom the case in the previous two seasons. Which leads me to;
Defensive Play
This team looks like a completely different one since Knoblauch and Coffey have taken over the bench. The play in their own zone has drastically improved, and most notably with Nurse and Bouchard, the two players I have been most critical of over the last two years.
Nurse was actually playing great prior to the coaching change though in fairness, his resurgent season has been huge for this group. But Bouchard was playing poorly and now he looks like a completely different player. His effort and compete level is what I would point to as being the biggest improvement but his defensive awareness while still needing work is also noticeably better. The surprising part of it all is that they did not change the system, they still play zone coverage which leads me to believe my assessment that Manson was not identifying the bad habits of these players was likely true.
Moving forward this team will likely add more depth pieces for a long run. I believe that an upgrade on Ceci would be beneficial but a player like Tanev who would check this box is unlikely to be dealt to a provincial rival, and beyond him the options dwindle in a hurry. So I’ll also highlight the other options that could become available in an updated version of my preseason trade target list which is sans Corey Perry now that they’ve added him via free agency. I will be referring to the Atheltic’s trade board a lot for whom they and their top insiders have deemed likely to be on the move based on their insider reporting largely, but some teams are not clearly sellers or buyers and much like the Ekholm deal a year ago this situation remains unclear at the moment therefore we’ll leave some room for other possibilities as well.
Chris Tanev RHD Calgary Flames
Chris Tanev was not on my initial list at the beginning of the season for a variety factors, namely that I thought the Calgary Flames would be more competitive this year. But even despite their recent uptick in the standings and on ice play, it’s likely that they will dish their top UFA’s and if possible I believe that Ken Holland needs to seriously consider this player because of the way he plays. He is essentially the right handed version of Mattias Ekholm and would slot very nicely alongside Nurse. He plays a hard nosed game, is defensively sound, and has made a reputation for himself as a guy who will do whatever it takes to win.
Now, this move has considerable hurdles to clear before it could come to fruition. First is that he has a M-NMC and holds some say in where he goes (10 teams he submits). He also carries a cap hit of $4,500,000 AAV so it would require some dollars out and for Calgary to retain a portion of his salary. Cody Ceci and a 1st with them retaining 25% gets the deal done, which is a lot so in a perfect world you’d like to see him resign immediately. Also, a perfect world scenario.
Nick Seeler RHD Philadelphia Flyers
Seeler is becoming a hot commodity on the trade market as his success in Philadelphia rolls on as does their hold on second place in the Metro. Frank Seravalli from Daily Faceoff has referred to him as a “human nail gun”. He plays the kind of game Tanev does albeit to a lesser degree skill wise and not as effective against elites. But, he’s physical, skates well, eats pucks and kills penalties. He also comes in on a league minimum deal with UFA status at the end of this campaign therefore it won’t cost a lot to acquire him. If anything, he’s an effective depth piece for a playoff run if Desharnais struggles or there’s an injury. If Philadelphia is dead set on competing this season then they won’t move on from him, but if the management team decides to be realistic about where they are and continue to hoard draft picks, Seeler would fetch them a decent return on the market.
Ilya Lybushkin RHD Anaheim Ducks
This could be an intriguing target for Ken Holland because he’s a veteran who like the other two listed before him plays a hard nosed, defensively sound brand of hockey on the right side* (a theme I will address later) and comes in cheap. And with only one more year on his deal it’s not hard to imagine that the Ducks would be willing to retain part of his salary to make the dollars work.
The reason for adding these three right handed defencemen is because I do believe that after letting his roster cook after the coaching change (which was the right thing to do), the need for better defensive play on the right side is the clearest need for Ken Holland. Let’s examine a little deeper why that is.
Of all the defensive pairs in Edmonton, Ceci and Nurse have the highest xGA with just a shade over 30 on the season, and that number is largely due to insufficient play from Ceci on the right side. They play a ton of minutes against elites which should be accounted by the stat but nevertheless, even during this great run they are on, it’s becoming more and more clear that this team does not want to enter a cup run with Cody Ceci as their top right handed shut down defender. And this is not to single him out per se, he isn’t by any means terrible. There’s still things to like about his game and by all accounts he’s a great person around the locker room. But the fact remains that he’s never been able to rediscover the level he played at in his first season as an Oiler and it’s also the eye test we can point too not just the underlying numbers. Him and Nurse appear to be out of sync often, sometimes multiple times per game. Whether it’s not recognizing Nurse wants him to be a reverse option or wants him to hinge for him and he doesn’t do either, just the little details aren’t being executed and come playoff time teams like Vegas, Winnipeg or LA will pounce on those opportunities which will be costly. Just this evening he turned the puck over twice and was beat off the rush once that led to a high danger chance for the Jackets.
The likelihood of moving him for a player like Tanev is low, therefore checking down to other options and just playing him less is more probable. In any event I do think some addition(s) at the position is necessary as the only other NHL level defencemen they have under contract are all LHD (Broberg, Niemelainen, Gleason).
Sean Monahan C Montreal Canadiens
The addition of Dylan Holloway and Corey Perry has already improved this rosters bottom 6 without having to pay assets which is a much needed boost for a team strapped of trade currency and spending money. However, if by March 8th the Perry experiment isn’t working, there is injury or Holloway isn’t producing the way he’s slated too it’s highly likely that they will look for a dance partner for another forward in fact, it’s a certainty according to people like Bob Stauffer and Jason Gregor who are around the team everyday.
Monahan is an attractive piece and I believe he’ll be on the move to a contender on deadline day. He’s been healthy all season, has played very well scoring 11 goals and 20 assists for 31 points, can kill penalties and is a solid two way center. What’s more is that he’s produced those offensive metrics playing most of his time with Joel Armia and Joshua Roy. His price tag is also not going to break the bank at $1,985,000 AAV
Alexandre Texier LW Columbus Blue Jackets
This man is interesting to me for a number of reasons. First is that much of the forward group in Edmonton lacks footspeed, which is crazy to think when you’re talking about a team with McDavid, McLeod, Foegle, Hyman etc. A lot of their players are not bad skaters or super slow either, but when it comes time to play Vancouver, or LA or Dallas who all have good team speed, the likes of Kane, Perry, Janmark and Ryan will likely be exposed. Kane is now looking a lot better than he was over the course of the last couple weeks as he was clearly dealing with injury. But the injection of some young legs and speed is something I think this roster could really use.
Texier is a fast player with an excellent motor. Good shot at mid range and can play all three forward positions comfortably. He’s also an RFA this season with a cap hit of $1,525,000 AAV. They have also been linked before and I think a marriage here could be a good fit.
Jakub Vrana LW St. Louis Blues
Edmonton is the land of second chances. We’ll see if it works out for Perry, it definitely worked out for Kane, not so much (thus far) for Jack Campbell. But nevertheless, Ken Holland and the Oilers brass have shown they are very willing to acquire “undesirables” shall we say due to their socioeconomic reality playing in Edmonton and in cap hell.
Vrana is a talented player I’ve long thought could be a fit on a line with Draisaitl. Only Auston Matthews over the last three seasons has scored at a higher rate per 60 minutes at 5on5. That’s insanity.
He’s struggled with consistency and finding a solid role throughout his career and is currently in the American League on assignment. His cap hit is more expensive than the other two options therefore this move is less likely. It makes taking the risk less palatable but if any team could and should take the risk to milk the last bit of offensive production out of him it should be the Oilers. That kind of potential is scary to even think about.
Depth scoring right now is not an issue for Edmonton, and even in the past I think the criticism of their depth was while warranted, overblown. But certainly right now, it’s a strength and not a weakness. With that said, if the right player or opportunity comes along in this all in year it certainly wouldn’t hurt to add even if it’s just an insurance policy in case of injury.
Kaapo Kahkonen G San Jose Sharks
Taking a big swing for a goaltender like Saros, Gibson or Hart seemed to make sense twelve weeks ago because of abysmal play from Skinner and Campbell who was eventually waived and has since been finding his game in Bakersfield. Since then, Skinner has gone 18-2, he’s now passed all time great Grant Fuhr for most wins in row with 11, surpassing Fuhr’s 10. Since November 24th, he’s also posted a 1.84 GAA, a .932 sv% and has 2 shutouts. He is clearly their first string netminder for now and the future. Spending a bunch of assets on any of the big name goalies that might be available makes absolutely no sense at this junction.
However, despite Pickard looking solid in his starts, Edmonton’s coaching staff has not given him many at all and the tax they have to pay as a result is on Skinner’s body, health and fuel tank. Not a sustainable practice as we move deeper into the season.
Picking up someone like Kahkonen who has been solid in front of an abysmal San Jose defensive unit to backup Skinner will be necessary if they don’t trust Pickard to be that guy.
Mackenzie Blackwood G San Jose Sharks
Blackwood has had a resurgent season after failing to win the crease in New Jersey, and like his counterpart on this list it’s been done in front of the worst defending team by all major metrics which is impressive. He also passes the eye test. He’s athletic, calm and controlled. A polar opposite to players like Mike Smith and Jack Campbell.
The Oilers management team faces a dilemma that’s important to note regarding the goaltending situation. Both Campbell and Pickard require waivers therefore, if they decide to recall Jack whose play has now picked up by leaps and bounds as of late, it’s very likely that another team will claim Pickard given that he’s the roster player going the other way which is likely the case given they are now carrying 12 forwards and 6 defencemen as of today.
Furthermore, they also currently carry one of the best young goalie prospects in the American League in Olivier Rodrigue. He’s third in the league with a .924 sv% and has allowed the Condors to surge into a playoff spot largely due to his stellar goaltending, making the prospect of trading a ton of assets for the aforementioned big names they have historically been linked too even less sense.
Paying the price of getting rid of Jack Campbell’s contract is something they should absolutely consider. It’s probably something they can execute easier in the off-season, but it should be at least discussed in the upcoming pro meetings. Getting that cap relief even if it means paying a 1st round pick in 2025 and a prospect might be worth the flexibility. You could then add Tanev without losing Ceci for example.
Bottom line is, the improvements of this team have been a welcome sight and a lot of it was to be expected. This team and management regime cannot get caught reading their press though and need to be realistic about their shortcomings. My sense is they do feel that way considering they’ve signed Corey Perry. The most likely move to expect next would probably be a goalie, which one they choose is hard to pin down.
Honorable mentions: Jordan Eberle, Jake Allen, Adam Henrique
I bring all three of these players up as they have been credibly linked to the Edmonton Oilers in trade discussion, the reason why they are honorable mentions however is that all three have too big of a cap hit and/or the ask is too much, specifically the case of Jake Allen. While I deeply respect Kent Hughes always trying to get the most for his assets, the ask of a 2nd round pick and prospect which is reportedly what he wants is far too much for a backup goalie.
Adam Henrique would be a solid pickup but at his AAV there’s no way the Oilers could make it work.
Jordan Eberle would be a slam dunk, and the thought of watching him, Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Gagner pass the cup around is tough not to fantasize about if you’re an Oilers fan. But at $5,500,000 AAV it’s hard to imagine a move that would facilitate this happening even if Seattle is both a) willing to retain 50% of his contract and b) are out of the playoff race by the deadline.
Happy win streak, let’s see how far they can take it.