Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 Season Preview
As training camp gets underway for yet another all in season that they can absolutely win, this team still has it's flaws that can and will need to be addressed.
After bowing out to the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final two seasons ago, many had the Oilers going even further on their brackets this season where they fell short again even sooner to the eventual champs, the Las Vegas Golden Knights. This year, in the eyes of most fans, analysts and pundits, anything short of at least a very deep run would be a failure. And according to captain Connor McDavid it’s “cup or bust”.
Among the many obstacles on their way to accomplishing the ultimate goal is themselves and their own philosophy which doesn’t seem to be discussed a whole lot.
Key Addition: RW Connor Brown
The only notable acquisition made this off-season by GM Ken Holland was McDavid’s ex teammate in junior and friend Connor Brown who current Oilers have said in recent days at the Captain’s skates that he reminds them of Zach Hyman. They play a similar style that relies on dogged determination, relentless pursuit of the puck and creating opportunities for their line. They both shoot right handed, play the same position and are regarded as hard working, high morale individuals on and off the ice. This is the kind of player and person that Ken Holland is trying to fill his dressing room with and it is a very good pickup to replace Kailer Yamamoto in the top six. The one notable difference between him and Hyman is that Connor Brown is highly effective in his own zone as a defensive winger which is rare for the position and something the Oilers need to improve upon.
The analytics community loves this signing as well, most notably Dom Luszczyszyn the national hockey writer of The Athletic who famously ranked the Oilers as the 5th most improved team this off-season solely due to this acquisition. The analysis was brief, but nonetheless him and many others view this signing as a very good one.
By the numbers, there is no doubt that Brown is an inarguable upgrade over Yamamoto, and the Oilers forward group could use an extra offensive punch in their depth not only to improve their 5on5 scoring but in case of injury as well.
The intangibles lost in the departure of Kailer Yamamoto, Klim Kostin and Nick Bjugstad however, will be noticeable and their replacements will be Dylan Holloway, the aforementioned Connor Brown, and one of Lane Pederson and/or Sam Gagner and/or Brandon Sutter, the last being a man who has not played pro hockey in almost two calendar years due to suffering from complications stemming from long Covid. It’s worth noting they’ve also brought in Drake Caggiula but it’s likely he will at least begin the year in Bakersfield.
A young prospect who has yet to play an NHL game who has a fighting chance of making the opening night roster is centermen Raphael Lavoie who is intriguing for a number of reasons. He’s a big man standing at 6'4” and weighing in at 196 pounds who is coming off a season in Bakersfield where he scored 25 goals and added 20 assists for 45 points. The season prior he scored 13 goals, and the one before that 5, showing very clear progression in his ability to put the puck in the net against professionals. He shoots the puck incredibly well, has great vision and couples it with solid stickhandling ability. His footspeed will be a hindrance at the NHL level, he does not stand out with his skating in the American league nor did he in the QMJHL.
What he is however is cheap and for a cap strapped team in desperate need of cheap young players who can produce, Lavoie seems like a perfect low risk and potential high reward scenario, and herein lies problem #1 with this rosters construction.
Both Ken Holland and Head Coach Jay Woodcroft have shown us with their words and actions that they prioritize veterans both when it comes time to look outside of the organization for upgrades and on the ice on gameday with the lineup card. Look no further than Jay Woodcroft’s decision to play Nurse and Ceci as much he did in the playoffs and not giving Broberg much of if any chance to show what he can do, and the even more fatal decision to play Draisaitl’s line against Eichel’s instead of going with the more effective yet younger line centered by Ryan McLeod.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but there’s viable data suggesting that had that small adjustment been made the Golden Knights would not be raising a banner on October 11th.
And then there’s Ken Holland who has replaced the losses of young players with Lane Pederson who granted is only 26, as well as offering PTO’s to veterans Sam Gagner and Brandon Sutter. Sam Gagner is a fine player and beloved in Edmonton who would be a perfect fit on the 4th line or 13th forward. He’s crafty, responsible and presumably would love to win and would bring a high standard and work ethic to the rink everyday. Brandon Sutter is a very similar player, both are experienced and completely competent NHL’ers pending that Sutter is back to form health wise (and here’s to hoping he is).
The problem however is that constantly reaching into the bargain bin of veteran recyclables to fill out your roster caps the depth’s ceiling in a variety of ways, and we have it on record that Holland does not like to be bold. Couple that with Jay Woodcroft not trusting young guys even if they are in the lineup, gives us the impression that they’re “playing it safe”.
The NHL is not just becoming a young man’s league anymore, it is one and Edmonton needs to get with the program. In fairness Ken Holland has publicly stated that it’s time for Broberg to play 15 minutes a night and indeed I hope he does but it’s still not enough. In order for this Connor Brown addition to make sense, the young guns need to be given the opportunity to fill out this teams depth on cheap contracts. This is not to say that Gagner and Sutter are expensive, they won’t be. But why not give your homegrown talent the opportunity who have nothing but upside and an entire career ahead of them? If they do not suffice on a team like this with high expectations, than you can look outside of the organization at the deadline for an upgrade. Furthermore, if you deal your younger assets now for whatever value they currently have, you’re left with veterans who have less..
Charlie McAvoy began his career in Boston in the thick of the NHL playoffs coming off a year of playing in the NCAA and a mere 4 games with the Providence Bruins. In those 4 games he had 2 assists, and in the 6 he played with the big club he had 3 assists. This past season Matthew Knies stepped off of the ice in college playing for the University of Minnesota and onto the NHL playoff surface and didn’t just “not look out of place”, he scored a goal and 3 assists in 7 games and looked like a solid, impactful top 6 forward. These are just two cherry picked examples and the Oilers don’t have a prospect of either caliber, but the point being is that the Oilers brass are searching for answers in the wrong places. Which leads me to problem #2.
Cap management
The Connor Brown signing while viewed by many as a steal for his current cap hit, was incentive laden that effectively kicks the can down the road to next season where the exact same issues will arise despite an expected increase in the salary cap. Per capfriendly.com the Oilers have no cap space currently and none projected at the deadline with a roster size consisting of 22 of 23 eligible players. Therefore, Sam Gagner and Brandon Sutter being brought in to skate at training camp seems moot unless a transaction is on the horizon to shed some money. Who would be the potential candidates? It’s unlikely that Holland would rid of Pederson given that he’s just acquired him on July 1st. So it stands to reason that three names will be on the chopping block.
LW Warren Foegele
Cap Hit: 2,750,000 AAV
Cap %: 3.3
Years Remaining: 1
Trade Protection: none
Age: 27
In my evaluation it would be a big mistake to let Foegele go. He’s a hard working, left handed, not quite as skilled version of Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. He’s experienced yet in his prime, he’s productive, understands the system and obviously fits in with the group. That being said, by this leagues standards he’s a clear candidate to become a cap casualty. As his term comes to an end they could open up room for younger players and the likes of Sam Gagner or Brandon Sutter who would all come in on cheaper contracts for potentially similar production. Potentially..
LD Brett Kulak
Cap Hit: 2,750,000 AAV
Cap %: 3.3
Years Remaining: 3
Trade Protection: none
Age: 29
In my evaluation, it would be an even bigger mistake to let Kulak go and this scenario is less likely. In the series last season against the LA Kings he was often times the best defenseman Woodcroft had in his employ. He’s a gamer (as they say), he elevates his play accordingly, is tough and plays responsibly which is the type of player Edmonton desperately needs on the back end. However, keeping him on the roster is starting to make less sense if Broberg does indeed settle into a role that sees him playing 15 minutes a night as Holland has said is the plan. Both Broberg and Kulak can play the right side therefore it’s absolutely possible they both remain Oilers. But it’s also possible Holland will shop Kulak in search of cap flexibility. This is more likely to happen at the deadline however so he ranks 2nd on this list.
RD Cody Ceci
Cap Hit: 3,250,000 AAV
Cap %: 3.9
Years Remaining: 2
Trade Protection: none
Age: 29
Cody Ceci in my evaluation is the most expendable player on the roster. The issue is most GM’s likely feel the same way and are unlikely to take on this contract or give up any assets to do so. It’s not all bad though..
It’s been reported that Ceci was battling nagging injuries this season all the while him and his wife had their first child meaning it’s very plausible that it was just an off year for Cody and I truly hope it is. His performance two years prior against the Flames in the playoffs and beyond was outstanding and the Oilers best bet right now is to wait and hope he can find that level of play again. That being said, if Broberg can play the right side at a similar, on par or higher level than it will behoove Ken Holland to rid himself of this contract.
Outside Obstacles: Seattle Kraken, Los Angeles Kings, Las Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars
The Seattle Kraken are coming off an impressive feel good run where they ousted the defending champs. This is a very sound team with outstanding depth. They don’t have any super stars but it’s death by a thousand cuts. They also locked up their stallion on the blueline this summer, Vince Dunn, who’s coming off a career year receiving Norris votes.
The Los Angeles Kings are a very good hockey team and all of their young prospects in the system have only gotten better the last few seasons. They added Pierre-Luc Dubois to succeed Kopitar when he eventually retires, but it costed them Rasmus Kupari, Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Sean Walker, and Sean Durzi (cap casualty to Arizona). Make no mistake about it this is still a very good team, but those exits are substantial and it’s my evaluation it was not worth it to secure Pierre-Luc Dubois. Moreover, they also lost goaltender Joonas Korpisalo who had a .958 save % in the series against Edmonton and replaced him with Cam Talbot.
The Las Vegas Golden Knights are beginning their championship defense largely the same group they were last June. They did lose an original misfit in veteran Reilly Smith who will be missed, but their biggest most important pieces still remain.
The Colorado Avalanche took some risks this off-season which was puzzling to watch unfold as they do not normally gamble on players like Jonathan Drouin who is a shall we say, polarizing player. And Ryan Johansen who while good is likely past his prime. It’s a calculated risk to replace Gabriel Landeskog who will miss the entire season.
The Dallas Stars are my pick to play the Oilers in the Western Conference Finals. This team is stacked with youth who are absolute x-factors (ie. Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston) and effective veterans one of which is captain Jamie Benn who had a resurgent season of sorts but famously took a suspension in the playoffs on a very ill-advised decision to cross check Mark Stone in the head and neck. But this team is gifted, tough, and most horrifying for opposing forwards, they have one of the best goalies in the game in Jake Oettinger. For my money, this is the team to beat in the West this year.
The moral of the Edmonton Oilers off-season story is that by leaning into their own philosophy, they’ve hindered their ability to reach their ceiling. Holland speaks out of both sides of his mouth regarding the salary cap and young players like Broberg, because they deploy more expensive veterans. This off-season when they lost veterans like Nick Bjugstad, he opted to replace him with yet another veteran and brought in ageing players on PTO’s whom have met their ceiling and can only come down from it. That is not a winning formula in today’s NHL. This group should be adding more speed and youth that have upside who are also cheaper. Raphael Lavoie has more upside than Sam Gagner and Brandon Sutter. Period.
It makes little to no sense to choose the ladder in the situation that they find themselves in and yet according to their own conventional wisdom they will almost certainly choose exactly that. Given the progression that Lavoie has shown for example means that signing Gagner over him is almost certainly the wrong decision especially if you have to trade one of the three aforementioned veterans to do so.
The way in which Ken Holland has approached building this team has backed himself into a corner that he complains about not being able to get out of which infuriates Oilers fans and I don’t blame them. If he’s looking for a center, it should be the young man with fresh legs who has played three seasons in the minor league system and shown progression every single year. Not the man who with all due respect, has seen the best phase of his career pass him by.
This season’s expected outcome: Win the division, and reach the Stanley Cup Finals.
Anything short of this, and fans will start asking questions. A loss to a formidable foe will undoubtedly sting, but if it were in the Stanley Cup Finals it will be more palatable. People and analysts will discuss what minor tweaks need to be made, but with the two best players on the planet right now and the pieces in place coupled with no spending money it’s a season where people will not tolerate an elimination in the Conference Finals, nor would the players.
The division is something that Zach Hyman made mention of in his exit interview with the media this year which I thought was interesting and that was that they needed to take advantage of the regular season. A lot of discussion in the hockey world is the style of play in the regular season vs. the playoffs, and not enough about the regular season and the playoffs. The two are inextricably linked (obviously) and the Oilers have notoriously pissed away the first half of their seasons. It’s time to take ownership of their division and secure home ice.
Bottom Line
Despite what I would call an ill-advised plan and clunky roster construction, this team is still a Stanley Cup contender which says a lot about the core players and their abilities. Both in terms of their individual skill sets on the ice and willingness and work ethic as players and people off the ice. The positives are that, pending an injury, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid will be the top two scorers in the NHL, you can say that with virtual certainty at this stage of their careers. The depth scoring is much better than most give them credit for and should be even better pending Evander Kane plays a full season, as well as Zach Hyman.
The defending simply has to better. That’s something I have harped on here enough so we won’t get too in depth again, but Nurse and Ceci need to pick up their play and win more shifts. The coaching staff need to address their bad habits, but the poor defending doesn’t just fall on them. As a 5on5 unit the Oilers need to learn not to puck watch and the coaching staff needs to identify in real time which lines are more effective against their opponents. These are very realistically accomplishable items on the Oilers checklist that can be completed within house. But at the deadline if it appears they cannot be, than Ken Holland will have a very tall task of trying to make another upgrade.
Potential Trade Targets:
RHD Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes
RHD Tyson Barrie, Nashville Predators
LHD Brendan Dillion, Washington Capitals
LHD Joel Edmundson, Washington Capitals
RHD Matt Dumba, Arizona Coyotes
RHD Nikita Zaitsev, Chicago Blackhawks
LW Jakub Vrana, St. Louis Blues
C Tyler Johnson, Chicago Blackhawks
LW Mike Hoffman, Montreal Canadiens
RW Corey Perry, Chicago Blackhawks
RW Nino Neiderreiter, Winnipeg Jets
Almost all of these names will likely be available at the deadline as they’re all UFA’s come July 1, and none but one of these teams are expected to be in the playoffs. With respect to Washington it looks as though they’re time is up and will likely be hoarding draft picks at the deadline while Ovechkin chases down Gretzky for the goal record (which I hope he does). The only exception is of course Carolina who has cup aspirations of their own, but their special circumstances dictate that there is potentially going to be an odd man out on their blueline and Pesce is the most likely.
Furthermore, a lot of these names come with a hefty price tag and would require some financial maneuvering for the Oilers to pull off a deal. But it’s not impossible, and my prediction is that defending will once again be a weakness so a heavy dose of defenders made this list.
In closing, while I do think this team is good enough to go all the way as long they get the luck all Stanley Cup champions get and stick to their identity, it’s still a flawed roster construction method that the front office needs to rethink. It’s time to let the young guns off the leash and see what they can do. Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Xavier Borgault and Philip Broberg are your guys. The sentiment that trusting young men to execute in the NHL is a bad idea is ages old, for dinosaurs. It’s a risk taking, quick moving, young man’s game so it’s time to take that risk with these kids you’ve developed. It’s my evaluation that Holland and Woodcroft need to stop blocking their path to the NHL with ageing veterans who they seem to view as the “safer option”. It’s a miscalculation on their part and contradicts what they both say they want to accomplish.