2024-2025 Offseason Review & Season Preview
As the dust has settled (somewhat), let's take a look at the new names and project where we go from here.
This is the second year I have had to deliver a post season post mortem, beginning with an image of a disappointed Connor McDavid. As both a fan and an independent evaluator however, this one both stung much less (this is subjective of course), and the team was drastically more improved from one year ago in some obvious ways and more underlying ones that aren’t based simply on the results.
Game 7 in this final represented just how razor slim the margins are in this sport. Evan Bouchard rung a post and a few sequences later Sam Reinhart potted what ended up being the Stanley Cup winning goal that was both partially redirected and slightly nabbed by Skinner’s arm. The goal was tallied at 15:11 of the second period. The Oilers then pressed by double shifting the nuclear option, which saw Hyman have a glorious wrap around opportunity, and McDavid with a golden chance in the slot both gone for naught.
On my way home from the bar, I tried to get upset and I couldn’t. I’ll leave myself out of the story moving on, but my biggest takeaway from that game was “I cant believe how hard it is to win in hockey.” I understand it’s an ages old euphemism, overly simplistic, and hyperbolic. But the point being is that this season highlights a difficult truth in this sport.
They didn’t fail this season as they did last year.
While it’s obvious that they came up short, and didn’t get the 4th victory you need, the aggregate data from the series tells us that this squad was good enough to win the cup, which leads us to this summer’s draft and free agency period…
Entry Draft
Much to all of our surprise, Jeff Jackson traded next years top 12 protected first rounder - in which case it slides to 2026 - to the Flyers to get into this year’s first round and selected C Sam O’Reilly from the London Knights. They also selected the top ranked European netminder who was draft eligible in Eemil Vinni, as well as a couple defensemen, among a number of others. For this article however, we will focus on the professional ranks who will be making a difference on the opening night roster.
Free Agency
Free Agency was much more interesting for the Oilers, which is not to say they had a bad draft, they did as good as they could if not better considering the trade up for O’Reilly. But what they did in a matter of a few hours had Oilers fans ready to plan a parade. That’s premature, but to be excited about the forward group is absolutely warranted. Much has been made over who they got so we’ll skip that bit of news. My bigger desire is to share whom I think should be in the lineup and where opening night.
*editorial note: This will be done with Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg in the fold despite their RFA status, as it’s very likely that they do re-sign with Edmonton. Retraction will come in the event one or both do not.*
An important caveat here is the status of Evander Kane which as it stands today is that he’s resting and rehabbing in lieu of surgery, but if unsuccessful will likely require it meaning he would be on LTIR.
The rumors and general discussion of him being traded are blasphemy in my evaluation. He has a full NMC until March 1st at which point it becomes a 16 team no fly zone. His health is uncertain, and while I won’t get into this in depth as I do not have any first hand information, it’s well documented and speculated upon that he has a checkered past or at the very least, a perceived checkered past.
Moreover, he carries a relatively hefty cap hit which most contenders who could use his intangibles cannot afford, and up and coming teams would be unlikely to take the risk of having him around their young players who they are trying to develop. I am also not convinced that the Oilers should even move on from him. So for this exercise, he’s going to remain in the lineup because not only do I think it’s optimal, it’s also the most likely state of the roster at least until March 1st.
So with all that in mind, we’ll start with the forward group.
Kane has the asterisk due to the aforementioned status, but if 100% healthy by October I do believe this or something much like it would be the optimal look for the Oilers.
Arvidsson will start the year on Draisaitl’s wing.
We know this because Kris Knoblauch out and out said during the Finals that Draisaitl doesn’t get to play with winger’s who are as good as other stars’ in the league which was a wild thing to hear from a head coach.
Furthermore, Jeff Jackson said in his presser after free agency that they targeted Arvidsson with designs of him playing with Draisaitl. I think it’s safe to assume that second line right wing spot will be populated by him.
The top line right wing spot is not up for any discussion. Hyman is coming off a 54 goal season and has immense chemistry with McDavid. What I do think becomes an interesting topic of discussion at training camp is the the left side on this line.
The departure of McLeod presents some wrinkles in need of ironing out. He is not an irreplaceable player by any stretch, but he did provide the coaching staff with unique, productive minutes away from McDavid and Draisaitl. Sparse offence, and excellent defensive play including penalty killing prowess. I think the player who most fits that bill as an internal replacement is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and I will elaborate on that, but that leaves this top line left wing spot vacant if such becomes the case.
Dylan Holloway developed chemistry in the playoffs with Draisaitl therefore, it’s very possible he starts the year with him and Arvidsson. In fact, it may even be the optimal look with Kane on the top line in an attempt to recreate the magic with McDavid and Hyman from three seasons ago. Whatever the case may be, it’s my humble opinion that this player needs to be in the top six rotation consistently. He’s earned it.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins moves back to his original and natural position of center between Jeff Skinner who while great offensively lacks defensive acumen, and another in Perry who lacks footspeed. This is a risk, no doubt, but with the departure of McLeod who was a rock steady defensive center, I do believe RNH is the absolute best replacement for this third line center role. Not only is he just as good defensively, but is also much more of an offensive threat. He does not have the footspeed that McLeod does of course, but he is still an exceptional skater nonetheless and would very likely provide the similar 5on5 outscoring numbers that McLeod did.
Some may think, fallaciously in my view, that because Skinner has been brought in recently on a higher cap hit he should by virtue be in the top six. I am not sold on that notion.
The point of bringing in a player like him is to add a goal scoring threat on your third line. The Oilers were just barely outscoring their opponents beyond the McDavid minutes and as long as I’ve been doing this have been criticized for it. But when they add a player who can then improve that dynamic, the immediate reaction is that they should try the player with McDavid. It’s counterintuitive.
I am a huge fan of Jeff Skinner and have been dating back to his days in Carolina. His shooting instincts are something that I have felt this roster has been sorely lacking for quite some time now. An effective usage for him would be to try him on a third line with other skilled playmakers to try and win those shifts at a higher rate than previous years.
The Corey Perry signing I do find peculiar. Not because I dislike the player, but at his age, production level and with the lack of footspeed, to crowd your depth chart with his cap hit seems like a continuation of the clunky roster building we have been critical of in the past. He brings some good stuff to the table of course, but my sense is they could get a similar or even better player on an ELC. Nevertheless, he’s still an Oiler and it’s unlikely that Savoie slots into that spot on opening night over him.
Many fans will be clamoring to have Savoie in the lineup, and in some ways I wouldn’t disagree with the logic. However, considering he’s coming off a significant shoulder injury last season and that this depth chart doesn’t offer him top six minutes or powerplay opportunities, he will and should start in the American league with Bakersfield where he can get both. He will absolutely be at the top of the list of recall options though, and will almost certainly see some NHL action.
The fourth line is a fan favorite, and all three players re-signed on team friendly deals citing their desire to stay and play for the chance to win in front of said fans which makes them beloved before they even set foot on the ice. And that’s awesome.
I don’t view having them on the fourth line as a demotion from their third line status in the finals, I think that line of thinking is rudimentary. The point of this forward depth is to create four lines you’re comfortable with putting out there and to also get them favorable matchups. There’s no chance Knoblauch splits this group up after the success they’ve had together, and it stands to reason that they can out-compete and out-produce their competition in this part of the rotation rather handedly.
The six man defense unit that as it stands today, will look the same as it did in game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals. The loss of Vincent Desharnais was puzzling which I will elaborate on further. At any rate however, pending that Broberg does indeed sign a new contract to play for the Oilers the group will be ran back out of necessity.
Veterans Josh Brown and Troy Stetcher both signed multi year deals for a chance to be with an organization pushing for the Cup. Brown for 3x $1,000,000 and Stetcher for 2x $787,500 and this is where the Desharnais loss rears it’s ugly head.
Desharnais took a major jump in his development this past season as we all know, and the word throughout the league amongst pundits, insiders and otherwise was that Desharnais had priced himself out of Edmonton. The number we all heard being projected by good sources was 5x at least $3,000,000 or more, comparative to the Cody Ceci AAV. Desharnais was an integral part of the best penalty kill in the playoffs as well as Ekholm’s partner in empty net drives to preserve leads late the entire season. He was an entrusted member of Coffey’s tactical shutdown unit and the results were golden.
When I saw that the Oilers had resigned Perry, Stetcher and Brown to a combined AAV of $2,937,500, I was confused as to what could’ve happened here. Did Desharnais want out? Did Jeff Jackson not make him an offer of similar value? Or did they want him gone? I can’t answer that question definitively, but the usage he added to this lineup is worth every penny of the cap hit he got in Vancouver and I cannot definitely say that about any of the the other three.
This is not to cut them all down, particularly Stetcher. He had an unfortunately short season because of a knee injury requiring surgery. Prior to that he had some starts in orange and blue that were quality. He brings a high compete level, is a terrific skater and can handle the puck well. It just seems suspicious that Desharnais given how important he was, is now gone for what was an entirely reasonable contract that Edmonton could’ve offered him.
So where do they go from here?
David Pagnotta from the Fourth Period reported on the NHL Network a couple of days ago that he had sources confirm that Jeff Jackson is searching for another “#4 or #5” defenseman to bolster the unit, and that Ceci and Kulak were part of that discussion. There is one problem.
Brett Kulak is a #4 or #5 defenseman and a damn good one, for two more years, at a very reasonable cap hit. Anybody who finds themselves on his pairing generally enjoys some immediate success due to his rock solid play. He’s not flashy, but he’s an absolutely essential cog in this engine that is the Oilers defense core which is flawed. And if you trade him out, you’d better be damn sure the minutes you’re replacing his with are quality.
I am very much of the mind that trading him for someone else is poor management. The only reasoning that could justify it is to trade for a similar player who is right handed to slot next to Nurse which in turn could enable Broberg to play his natural side. Massive risk here.
If the option is to trade Ceci in search of an upgrade, they will have to package a considerable asset to entice someone to take on the contract which should be realistic. Cody Ceci is a fine defender in the right situation. I do however believe that the verdict is in that he is not a fit for this group. It’s certainly not all his fault either, but the lack of situational awareness and lack of trade protection make him the weak link.
Looking around the landscape of the league, it’s hard to pin down a realistic trade target. Most teams rosters are set, and are going to tinker to become cap compliant in the cases of contenders. None of those teams present any real options for Edmonton with either Kulak or Ceci going the other way.
No rebuilding teams have a ton of options either, but I have identified two players I do think could be on the front offices radar via the trade market.
Radko Gudas
Gudas is the best and most realistic option, albeit still unlikely, that Edmonton can obtain via trade. He carries a $4,000,000 cap hit which is higher than Ceci’s, as well as a modified no-trade clause which consists of 16 teams that is now in effect as of July 1st. So there are some considerable road blocks to detour, but with retention and him deciding he wants to play for the Oilers, this would be a realistic and viable upgrade from Cody Ceci. Even at his age of 34, this guy still brings it and not just by the eye test.
These are some impressive numbers for a player who has mostly been deemed as a liability throughout his career, which is completely undeserved. He also brings the old school intangibles needed to push deep into the playoffs and win. He’s defensively aware, a throwback, and sticks up for his teammates. Him and Kulak as your third pairing, or perhaps with Nurse, would add a formidable dynamic to this six man unit and make it considerably harder to play against. It would take Ceci and a 2nd round pick minimum to get it done, probably more. This is also assuming Kane ends up on LTIR, because with Holloway and Broberg yet to ink their new deals which should be roughly 2.2 to 2.5 million combined, the salary cap implications make this move difficult.
Adam Larsson
Adam Larsson carries an identical cap hit to Gudas so the same issues arise which we won’t dwell on again, but this reunion would be accompanied also by a former relationship souring at the end of it. Larsson was famously “ran out of town” by fans and media which never sat well with a lot of us, so it’s relatively safe to assume that Edmonton is among his ten teams he wishes not to be traded to in this his final year under Seattle control.
Nevertheless this man would be a perfect fit in the top four alongside Nurse. He was always a solid two way defender with imperfections, and if a similar package we drew up for Gudas was sent to the Kraken (perhaps at the deadline) assuming he’s willing to waive to come back to Oil Country, this would be a major upgrade to the current group.
These two players are the only two, RHD, who all things considered represent tangible upgrades as a Ceci replacement, who will also potentially be available. Much like Ekholm two trade deadlines ago, there will be names that become available we aren’t expecting to be. As of now all things considered (rivalries, salary cap, contender status, lack of internal personnel), these two upcoming right handed UFA’s are the trade targets I imagine Jeff Jackson is considering as options to replace Cody Ceci.
How much of an upgrade would these replacements be?
Ceci’s numbers are not much worse than either of these aforementioned players and in some cases their better. However, the two key numbers that show clear inferiority are relative dangerous fenwick for and relative corsi for percentages.
This is an issue.
Both of these stats account for the quality of their teammates and Ceci’s are considerably better than Gudas’ and Larsson’s. This does indicate that the numbers would be substantially improved with either option. Ceci is a fine player and as I’ve noted before is by all accounts an incredible person and teammate. But this team can ill afford to run back a defensive unit with as many mistakes as this one generates which makes Ceci the odd man out.
Internal Options
There are some interesting names among the list of free agents such as Tyson Barrie, Justin Schultz, Calen Addison to name a few. But none of these represent clear upgrades. Addison would be an interesting reclamation project as he’s not been able to find a fit in his young career, is highly skilled and would be cheap. Jackson may still see him as an option at league minimum and he could play in Bakersfield as a recall option.
The other two men are former Oilers of course, but neither bring the kind of defensive game needed to really change the dynamic of the current group which is what we’re aiming to do.
So that leaves only the internal options of which there are few, but if the front office and coaching staff deem they are serviceable in Ceci’s absence they could theoretically move Ceci for a late pick and weaponize the freed up cap space at the deadline for a more targeted option, when more options become available as team’s places in the standings become clear.
Max Wanner and Phil Kemp are the two most ready for the NHL, and most fit the bill stylistically for what Edmonton needs to improve. Wanner is 21 years of age but tracked incredibly well against elites at the American League level this past season, and Kemp in a similar role at the age of 25 brings more experience against professionals.
A move like this is unlikely given that the coaching staff would probably want to see both play NHL competition in pre-season before making such a colossal change in the defensive depth chart. But with the signings of Brown and Stetcher who are both capable NHL’ers, we may be able to use that as a clue to indicate that the front office doesn’t view the option as so colossal after all.
There is really no intrigue at this position. Many Oilers detractors will say this goaltending tandem is not good enough, and I would say they are wrong. Skinner is not elite, and Pickard is an average to slightly above average backup. But Skinner showed as series’ went on that he’s a perfectly capable starter who only gets better as the games get more difficult.
The biggest factor when evaluating the situation, is that he is a .909 sv% goalie on his career who rings in at $2,600,000 AAV for the next two seasons. If he can maintain that level of play consistently, which is absolutely good enough for this offensive group to win with, I don’t see a good argument for paying assets to try and find a different goalie.
I am of the opinion that this team would be best served by finding an upgrade on the right side of their six man defensive unit, but I don’t see a ton of realistic ways of going about that. With so many shoes still to drop, it’s hard to project any major shift in this teams DNA prior to training camp starting.
With the team still in search of a new GM, negotiating an extension with Leon Draisaitl, all the while coping with an emotional defeat in game seven of the Finals, my money is on this group being the one we see opening night.